The USA loves polling. Every day it is easy to track the effectiveness of each campaign by reading the polls. I love polls, specially when my guy is leading, as Obama is now.
When Norma and I were more involved in Canadian politics, typically with her as Campaign Manager and I as the money man, we had a different take on polling. In Canada, the media does not do polling right from the start of a campaign. They never started serious polling until near the end of the two month campaign. Early on, most polls were conducted by and for the political parties themselves and results were not made public, they were for the use of the campaigns. We would not allow polls to be discussed among the campaign workers. If we were far behind, our volunteers would get discouraged and quit working and if we were far ahead, our volunteers would think it was in the bag and quit working. Donations would dry up for the same reason. A bad situation either way. Discussion of polls was limited to late nights in the back room with key organizers after the volunteers had left and were usually accompanied by a shot of scotch. Our work days were usually 7 am to 11 pm, 7 days a week for the entire two month campaign.
In the USA right now, Obama is ahead and is stretching out his lead every day. Romney is in a tailspin, a death spiral. Nate Silver is a pollster for the New York Times and has taken analysis of polls up several levels. He has an enviable record predicting results. In the 2008 election he correctly predicted the results of every State. Right now he is giving Obama a 337 to 201 lead in the Electoral College vote, a lead that is almost insurmountable and the only result that counts. In popular vote, a figure that is not all that meaningful in their Electoral College system, Obama leads 52.1 to 46.6, a virtual landslide in American political terms where people are usually split almost equally between Obama's Democrats and Romney's Republicans.
For President Obama and his supporters, Life is Good.
I enjoy politics too....and look forward to your future blogs on the US Presidential race.
ReplyDeleteI think it's a fair bet to say that the overwhelming majority of Canadians are hoping, like you and me, that President Barack Obama is re-elected. It's certainly looking that way right now.
ReplyDeleteI suspect you are correct rick. This is true for most of the world as well. They like Obama.
DeleteIt's not over until it's over. A lot can happen in six weeks.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Kevin, but the trend has not changed. Obama is going up and Romney is going down. it would take a disastrous news story or a huge mistake by Obama to reverse this trend in a meaningful way.
DeleteHopefully after the election we will see fewer, or even the reversal, of the hate driven anti-immigrants "show us your papers" laws and the "voter ID" laws which are clearly intended to stop minorities and the poor from voting. Of course, this will depend on who is elected and Obama is the best choice to end this discrimination.
ReplyDeleteI dont believe that there are very many Americans who are "anti-immigrant", but there are a lot of Americans who are "anti-illegal alien" and rightly so. The problem is not necessarily that they are here illegally, or where they come from, but their shear numbers have created a huge over supply of unskilled and low skilled workers which has driven down wages and benefits for millions of Americans and legal aliens. The subsequent low wages and benefits has caused a drmatic increase in the demand on social welfare programs, and less revenues for government at all levels to the point now that 47% of Federal Income tax filers do not make enough money to owe any Federal Income tax. The choice we are faced with here in the USA is either to get the illegals out to bring back a balance in the supply and demand for labor, or drastically reduce virtually all social welfare programs.
DeleteI live in Ohio, yeah that Ohio, the swing state, O is up by ten points in any honest poll. The feeling here is that the Republicans screwed it up for eight years, unfunded wars, tax cuts during war time. What was that about? The current guy acts like a grown up. We'll see how it goes over the next four.
ReplyDeleteRomney blew it big in Ohio. He is living to regret it. He can win without Ohio but it will be difficult.
DeleteHis 47% thoughts that came out are about like playing quick draw with the hold down strap hooked on the holster. A shot off foot every time.
DeleteWe down here in the lower 48 wish there was a little more "nice" and a lot less "rude" like you enjoy up in Canada.
ReplyDeleteI too enjoy watching the "art of the possibles." I think it is President Obama's win to lose at this point. He needs to not make a major mistake and do well in the debates. The debates count for a lot and I hope he does well.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure about the debates Janet. They could only influence the truly undecided and if anyone is truly undecided at this point I do not think a debate is going to influence them. I think they will simply join the crowd who do not vote at all.
DeleteSo looking forward to the debates. We'll be in Cuba on Election Day, will be interesting to say the least. For the Cubans I hope for an end to the embargo but selfishly I don't. I think you'll know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteI know exactly what you mean!
DeleteCannot stand either of those candidates - pathetic. It is as if the next four years is doom and gloom by design. One of several reasons we no longer live in that country. Obama will win - there is not enough that could happen between now and the election to change that.
ReplyDeleteWell John, we do agree that Obama will win. I hope the next four years show a continuation of the progress that has been made. An unblocked Senate will make things a little easier and it looks like that might be in the cards as well.
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