I am liking the US political polls as Election Day nears. The boorish president of my neighbouring country is about to be shown the door.
You can make polls say whatever you want them to say and that was the case in 2016 but word on the street is that polling methodology has changed to compensate for all the mistakes that were made last time and the end results will be much closer to the polls this time. I sincerely hope so, I am so done with my self confessed pussy grabbing neighbour!
This is what the polls show:
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight:
Biden's chance of winning the Presidency: 90% (348 Electoral Votes)
Democrat's chance of winning the Senate: 78%
Democrat's chance of retaining the House: 98%
Canada's 338Canada which so accurately predicted our recent British Columbia's Provincial Election has this to say about the US campaign:
Biden's chance of winning the Presidency: 87.4% (349 Electoral Votes)
But I also know that the only poll that counts is the one on November 3. The encouraging results shown above will only happen if YOU vote. Hopefully you voted early but if not, if you are going to vote on the 3rd then make a plan! Huge efforts will be made to keep you from voting as Trump only has a chance if he can intimidate you and keep you from voting. We will see Voter Suppression like we have never seen it! They did it in 2016 and have been working to perfect it. Do not allow them to succeed!
Plan on spending all day if need be. Go early so the door won't be slammed in your face. Take your mask, water, a sandwich, a chair and a friend! Stand in line, keep your six foot distancing and wait it out. Be prepared for rain, snow or wind. Just don't let your voice be silenced.
I for one will be up late watching the results come in!
After my experience with Nevada's new online voting system, I have doubts about the integrity of this election. Too many new systems are being implemented without adequate testing. Georgia, New Jersey, and New York learned that in the Democrat primary, but the systems may not have been properly adjusted. The problem is that we never will really know.
ReplyDeleteTo top it off, yesterday I received an unsolicited absentee ballot from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. That was a bit disturbing.
Obviously Steve has been sipping the orange koolaid. The only person who thinks our elections are rigged is the guy in charge and I too hope the polling is correct this cycle.
ReplyDeleteI do not believe the elections are rigged. Far from it. But because of rushing some procedures into place, the hanging chads of 2000 will look like a simple problem. It is, of course, possible that a landslide with a spread of 8-10% will obviate the flaws.
DeleteI can only hope he is shown the door. The virus is a wildcard, as are about 20% of the voters being new- we'll see
ReplyDeleteI voted weeks ago. Now all I can do is drive my friends to their voting sites & pray for a merciful end to our long national nightmare. Unless it is a Landslide - we will not know on election night.
ReplyDeleteFrom your computer to God's ears! I so hope those percentages are accurate. I sent my ballot back the day I received it in Mexico! I sent it DHL to the County Clerk of Court of Houston and received notification when it was received. What a relief!!! Harris County in Texas has had an aggressive campaign to get EVERYONE to vote, irregardless of party but everyone I talk to in Texas is voting for Democrats, thankfully. It will be exciting to see the results. That's for sure!
ReplyDeleteHarris County used one of the most aggressive forms of voter suppression so far in making it very difficult to drop off an absentee or mail in ballot by locating the single ballot box in the farthest reaches of the county. Hopefully the GOP efforts to stop people from voting will be for naught.
DeleteYes, Harris County (where I lived for 34 years) encompasses 2200 sq miles. That is not a typo. They put the one drop box near the Astrodome in the parking lot! From where I lived on Galveston Bay to that location would have taken me close to an hour to drive to it.......but, I was lucky to be able to mail my ballot from Mexico and avoid that mess! For those living in the City of Houston, the Dome is an easy place to access.........
DeleteSure hope the polls are right this time.
ReplyDeleteWe, too will be up late with bated breath pulling for Biden. we, have had way more than enough of Trump.
ReplyDeleteElaine in Salt Air, BC.
Apparently, Democrats are using mail-in balloting more than Republicans who will vote in-person on Election Day. Because in-person votes are counted before mail-ins, Trump et al will declare victory that night. Then as mail-ins get counted and, I pray, Democrats gain traction, the lawsuits come out of the woodwork to suppress those votes for myriad reasons. (Why did we ever move to Florida two years ago?)
ReplyDeleteI agree that if Trump is ahead on election night, he will declare victory. A Biden landslide in electoral votes would be a big step to avoiding a constitutional crisis.
ReplyDeleteJust heard the news that US federal judges have gained oversight of the US Post Office to make sure the ballots are expeditiously delivered to the state clerks offices. If anyone finds out which states are subject to that oversight, let us know. I just knew that US Post Master General was a scoundrel.
ReplyDeleteThere outta be a law that as long as your ballot is in the hands of the Federal Government (Post Office) it is counted, no matter how long it takes them to deliver it to the elections office. We have the same rule as you do so it isn't just the US,
DeleteCroft, a couple of months ago, the US Post Master General (I think his last name is DeJoy) was called before an oversight committee in the House of Representatives to explain why he was ripping out a large number of mail sorting machines, removing a lot of US Post Office mail drop boxes along sidewalks and shopping centers, and refusing overtime to US Post Office employees who had to resort to hand sorting to make up for less sorting equipment. DeJoy said it was because he was determined to make the Post Office work within their budget--of course, that was BS. Checking back, this guy was one of the large donors to Trump's campaign, and he was appointed to this position under the radar by a Trump. Congress instructed him to put the Post Office back the way it was (which he didn't because a lot of the sorters had been junked) and subsequently some federal judges have now entered the picture in some states, one of which is Wisconsin (there are more, but can't remember the other states). These federal judges will issue the paperwork for overtime for PO employees and activate US marshals to assure that the ballots (for the states under oversight) get to the various states' clerks' offices. I wish we could do it the way you do it, but the Post Office can't be trusted right now because of the Post Master General.
DeleteMy fingers are crossed that we get rid of that asshole but I've gotta say I'm not sure about anything. Wish I was!
ReplyDeleteI hope you’re correct!
ReplyDelete